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I’ve written several posts and shared many tools on scenario planning as a critical tool for envisioning possible business futures and informing talent strategies. Building on those resources, a new 48-page BCG Henderson Institute report, drawn from more than 100 megatrends and a century of historical data, presents four distinct, plausible scenarios for the world through 2050. Two are especially relevant for workforce planning: AI Abundance (AI and robotics reshape work and leisure, driving exceptional labor productivity growth and a 25% reduction in average working hours) and Battling Blocs (geopolitical fragmentation compresses global talent mobility and cross-border labor flows). In the AI Abundance scenario specifically, average annual working hours fall from 2,100 to 1,600 — a 25% decline driven by task automation. The report notes this shift produces a fundamentally different relationship between work and identity, as employees maintain high quality of life while working significantly fewer hours. Beyond the specific scenarios, I am sharing this report as a broader example of scenario planning and how the outputs can inform strategic planning. Appendix 1 shows a three-step process to get the most out of scenarios and can be useful for those responsible for or involved in strategic business and talent planning for their organizations. As a bonus, I’m resharing my cheat sheet, Using Scenario Planning to Inform Workforce Planning.
