If you find value in content like this, sign up for my Talent Edge Weekly newsletter.
Strategic workforce planning (SWP) is consistently rated a top HR priority among HR practitioners. Yet it also carries one of the largest gaps between importance and capability. I recently shared BCG’s and WFPMA analysis of 28 workforce practices, which found SWP ranked fourth in terms of that gap, meaning organizations know it matters but have not built the muscle to do it well. That gap shows up in predictable ways. One of the most common is overhiring, in which organizations miscalculate how many people they need, and when workforce supply outpaces demand, resort to layoffs only to begin rehiring when demand returns. I recently addressed this cycle with my post and cheat sheet featuring eight questions to evaluate whether a vacant role needs to be backfilled. Another symptom is premature AI-driven layoffs, where roles are eliminated to fund AI investments before organizations fully understand how work is changing, what can be automated versus augmented, or which human capabilities will still be needed. Without that clarity, workforce decisions risk being undone at significant cost. Gartner predicts that by 2027, half of companies that cut staff due to AI will rehire for similar functions, often under different job titles. To help bring more clarity to these decisions, I am resharing an interactive HBS Working Knowledge tool that lets you gauge how vulnerable a job is to AI replacement versus augmentation. Use the dropdown filters by job category or keyword to see where occupations land on the spectrum, a useful starting point for more informed workforce planning.
